In January 2026, the London Metal Exchange three-month tin contract closed at US$53,462 a tonne, a nominal all-time high that surpassed the March 2022 peak, and it has traded near those levels since. The puzzle is that there is no shortage of tin today: exchange inventories actually rose as the price climbed, rather than being drawn down. Two very different things are holding the price up. The first is short-term: a wave of investor buying, which the industry says drove the January jump. The second is long-term: on current forecasts, the world will not mine enough tin to meet demand later this decade, a gap already projected before the rally began and expected to persist after it fades. The lasting story is that forecast shortfall, not the spike.