The Silver War – China Cornering the Silver Market?

As of January 1, 2026, China is implementing export controls that threaten to starve the world’s solar and EV industries.

Notably highlighted by @elonmusk and others.

So, in light of these new controls, here is a brief history on China’s centuries-long obsession with silver.

The Silver War

In the modern world, trade deficits are often viewed as abstract numbers on a screen. But for most of human history, trade was physics. It was the movement of physical mass from point A to point B.

When the balance of goods tilted too far in one direction, the correction wasn't abstract nor fixed by adjusting interest rates. Instead, you could feel the correction like a cannonball to the chest.

The First Opium War

It is often remembered as a moral tragedy. While true, it is also a story about silver that few know about.

So, if you put on your "macro/history glasses"—and look at the transactions rather than the morality—a different picture emerges.

A war for Silver.

It is a masterclass in what happens when a global superpower runs out of money, and the lengths it will go to turn the tide.

Aside from a moral tragedy, the First Opium War was also a struggle over the flow of Silver.

Let’s rewind the tape to the late 18th century. Global trade had a fundamental problem, a problem that kept the directors of the British East India Company (EIC) awake at night.

For nearly a century, the Qing Dynasty arguably ran the world's most successful mercantilist operation.

Europe, and specifically Great Britain, had an insatiable appetite for Chinese luxury goods—tea, silk, and porcelain. And by the late 1700s, tea taxes accounted for nearly 10% of the British government’s total revenue.

The problem was that trade was rather one-sided. This created a massive structural imbalance. A trade balance that was settled in the only metal the Chinese wanted. Silver.

The Chinese Emperor Qianlong famously dismissed King George III and all British attempts to sell their own manufactured goods, stating, “Our Celestial Empire possesses all things in prolific abundance and lacks no product within its own borders.”

However, under the "Single Whip" reforms, every peasant in China was structurally short the silver as they had to pay taxes in Silver. And since China lacked sufficient domestic silver mines at the time, they had effectively outsourced their money supply to foreign powers.

Structurally, this was a ticking time bomb.

The British East India Company (EIC) was effectively hemorrhaging the British Empire's wealth (silver reserves). They were forced to buy silver from continental Europe and Mexico (the famous Spanish "Pieces of Eight"), ship it halfway around the world, and deposit it into the Chinese economy where it vanished, never to return.

Between 1700 and 1800, estimates suggest China absorbed roughly 40% of the world's silver production.

The math was unsustainable. The Empire needed to turn the tide.

They came up with a product with three specific characteristics: high value-to-weight ratio, inelastic demand (addiction), and the ability to be produced within the Empire’s borders (India).

They found it in the poppy.

The introduction of opium changed the global flow of capital with terrifying speed. The EIC didn't trade opium directly—that would be "illegal" and damage their charter. Instead, they created a sophisticated laundering scheme:

• The EIC monopolized opium production in India.

• They auctioned the opium to "private" traders.

• Traders smuggled the drug into China.

• Sold the opium for silver.

• Then deposited the silver back to the EIC in exchange for bills of credit in London.

Suddenly, the flow reversed. By the 1830s, silver was no longer streaming into China. It was gushing out.

For China, this was a disaster. Their domestic economy was built on a bimetallic system: farmers traded in copper coins, but taxes were paid in silver. As silver left the country, the price of silver rose relative to copper.

In practice, this meant a massive tax hike for the Chinese farmer, even though the nominal tax remained unchanged. Purchasing power collapsed. The social contract was broken.

When the Emperor sent his commissioner, to Canton in 1839 to stop the trade, he seized and destroyed over 1,000 tons of opium. He mixed it with lime and salt and flushed it into the sea.

In London, the discussion was not about "forcing the opium onto another nation." This was about "Free Trade." To seize opium (property) was a violation of property rights and the free market.

By rebranding a drug bust as a violation of liberal values, London cleared the political path for the First Opium War.

The Kinetic Conclusion

The war itself was a formality. The British Navy, spearheaded by the iron-hulled steamship Nemesis, met Chinese wooden junks.

It was an asymmetric slaughter that ended at the negotiating table in Nanking in 1842 where Britain got Hong Kong and forced China to pay 21 million silver dollars.

• 6 million for the destroyed opium.

• 3 million for debts to British merchants.

• 12 million for war costs.

The circle was closed (for now) and the Empire had clawed back the silver it had spent on tea over the previous decades. But what the Brits didn’t realize was that dragons never forget.

Lesson learned

It was a hard lesson for China in sovereign risk: Never build an economy on a critical resource you cannot control. It is a lesson they have apparently learned.

Fast forward to today, January 2026. The global silver dynamic has inverted. In the mid-18th century, China produced less than 1% of the world’s silver.

Today, they produce almost 13%.

But more importantly, while China still imports raw silver ore, it has spent the last two decades quietly cornering the processing capacity. Today, China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver refining.

And effective January 1, 2026, China has implemented new export controls on silver.

While China's government cites resource protection, environmental concerns, and the need to support domestic industries as official justifications analysts and market reports highlight deeper motivations.

China is facing surging domestic demand from its booming solar panel manufacturing and EV sectors. Silver is the conductive lifeblood of the green energy revolution. By restricting exports, China is elevating silver to the status of a strategic mineral.

This is a geopolitical squeeze. Just as Britain once weaponized opium to extract silver, China is now weaponizing silver supply to extract value from the West.

With the U.S. and Europe heavily reliant on Chinese refined silver for their own solar ambitions and defense applications, this chokehold creates leverage.

In 1839, the Dragon lost the Silver War because they could not stop the flow of metal out of their borders. In 2026, they seem focused to win the Silver War.

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Wishing you all a Happy New Year!

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This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.