Copper’s Complex Quarter: Resilience Amid Disruption (Q3 2025)
Q3 2025 proved challenging for the global copper industry. Strong demand from electrification and infrastructure met sharp supply-side disruptions. Output from the top 20 miners hit ~3.46 million tonnes, down ~4% quarter-over-quarter, per SMM data.
Operational Setbacks Hit Giants
Freeport-McMoRan suffered a major blow at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. On September 8, a massive mud rush flooded underground levels with ~800,000 tonnes of material, tragically killing seven workers and halting operations [Reuters, Freeport Update]. Q3 production reached 912 million pounds (~413,700 tonnes), with higher copper and gold prices cushioning financial impacts.
In Chile, Codelco dealt with tragedy too. A July 31 seismic event triggered a rockburst at El Teniente, claiming six lives and forcing a safety-driven shutdown [Reuters, Mining Technology]. Output fell sharply, though year-to-date volumes rose modestly via ramp-ups at Ministro Hales and Rajo Inca.
Bright Spots: Glencore and Zijin Shine
Glencore delivered a strong rebound, with own-sourced copper up 36% QoQ to higher grades at African assets like KCC in the DRC [Glencore Q3 Report]. It strategically prioritized copper amid cobalt export quotas.
Zijin Mining solidified its rise, posting ~830,000 tonnes in nine-month output (up 5% YoY) [Zijin Report]. Phase II at Julong in Tibet nears year-end commissioning, boosting future capacity.
Steady Progress and Outlook
Rio Tinto advanced mined copper YoY via the Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp-up in Mongolia, on track for >50% annual growth [Rio Tinto Q3 Results].
Disruptions from Grasberg and El Teniente flipped 2025 forecasts from surplus to deficit (estimates 55,500–400,000 tonnes) [Goldman Sachs, Benchmark]. As safety and environmental standards tighten, brownfield expansions will shape the energy transition ahead.
Stay tuned. We will be sharing our Q4 update in the coming months.
