Copper
November 26, 2025
2 min
Copper
If you are tracking the commodities market, the latest note from UBS—the world’s largest global wealth manager—signals a "perfect storm" for copper, as reported by Reuters. This forecast carries significant weight; when UBS shifts its "House View," it often signals where institutional capital will flow next.
The bank has aggressively raised its price forecasts, citing a collision between tightening global supply and fueled demand from the green energy transition.
📈 The Trajectory: Reaching New Highs
UBS’s updated projections paint a bullish picture for the next year. The bank has raised its March 2026 forecast by $750 to $11,500 per metric ton, and pushed its targets for June and September 2026 up by $1,000 each.
Most notably, UBS introduced a new target for December 2026, predicting prices will climb significantly:
New Target: UBS predicts copper prices will hit $13,000 per ton by December 2026.
As illustrated in the forecast above, this upward momentum is fueled by long-term demand from electrification. UBS expects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% annually through 2026, driven by:
- Electric Vehicles (EVs)
- Power-grid investments
- The booming data center sector
📉 The Widening Deficit: Where is the Supply?
While demand creates the pull, the supply side is providing the push. UBS warns that the gap between how much copper the world needs and how much is available is widening significantly.
The bank has drastically increased its market deficit forecasts. Falling inventories and persistent supply risks are expected to keep market conditions extremely tight.
What is driving this scarcity? UBS points to "persistent mine disruptions" as a key factor. Specific challenges cited include:
- Indonesia: Production halts at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine following a fatal incident.
- Chile: A slower-than-expected output recovery.
- Peru: Recurring protests affecting operations.
Consequently, UBS has trimmed its refined copper production growth estimates to just 1.2% for 2025.
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